Bank of England downgrades growth forecast for 2017!!
That’s the headline the media have chosen to run with. Cue undisguised glee from the anti-Brexit brigade, who leap on anything they can twist as ‘bad news’, cuddling it and stroking it like Gollum with his precious. Of course, they ignore that he says the financial services sector in the UK could double in size over the next 25 years.
Let’s look at this logically, shall we?
The Remain campaign forecast that if we voted to leave, growth in 2017 would be -0.8%. In other words, a serious recession in 2017 continuing on from a sharp contraction in the second half of 2016. This is where Gollum hisses “But we haven’t lefted it yet, precious! The prediction was for when we left! Stupid, fat Brexiter!”.
Settle down, Smeagol. In case you forgot, they were kind enough to put specific dates to their ridiculous predictions. Remember?
After the vote to leave, Mark Carney announced that the Bank of England had cut their growth forecasts for 2017 down to +0.8%. That in itself meant that only a couple of weeks after the vote, the Bank of England already expected the Remain campaign to be wrong by a whopping 1.6%.
Then, when growth actually accelerated in the final two quarters of 2016 and the massive recession was nowhere to be seen, the Bank of England raised their growth forecast for 2017 to 1.9%.
They have now revised it to 1.7%, and the media are wetting the bed about it, framing it as a huge disaster.
In the past 3 years, do you know what growth Germany has averaged? You guessed it. 1.7%. I don’t recall people gleefully mocking their performance as somehow woeful, do you?
And can you imagine if the Bank of England had predicted this before the referendum? “If you vote to leave, growth in 2016 will accelerate but we might grow slightly less quickly in 2017!!”
Leave would have won a landslide.
I suggest the media use this alternative headline to report the news in future:
Bank of England say Remain campaign will be wrong by 2.5%, rather than 2.7% in 2017.
I didn’t think so.